Insights: Aurora Proprietary Data
In last year’s report, we introduced Aurora’s proprietary project data for the very first time. This means we now have the ability to look at year-over-year trends within Aurora’s solar project designs database. Aurora is the largest solar software provider in the world, and is used by approximately 80% of the top 75 U.S. residential solar companiess, with over 3,500 customers creating more than 70,000 projects per week.
For this report, we analyzed more than nine million projects from 2022 and 2023, and compared them, where applicable, to the 2021 to 2022 dataset. Similar to last year, this data uncovered some macro trends, and provides an accurate snapshot of what the U.S. residential solar market looks like, and how it is changing.
What we immediately noticed is that while we saw an increase in 2023 project count, the growth clocked in at about 4% versus the nearly 40% growth we saw the year before. This slowed growth is echoed in other market data. For example, Wood Mackenzie saw 2023 installations increase 12% year-over-year (YOY), compared to a 42% increase in 2022. Our project count data, which is a precursor to install data, is in line with these findings.
2022
0%
YOY increase in the number of solar design projects in Aurora
2023
0%
YOY increase in the number of solar design projects in Aurora
While we saw growth across nearly all regions of the country, the Southern United States did not increase project count in 2023, with a nearly 8% decline compared to 2022. There are a few factors that might help explain this:
- Many southern states, like West Virginia, produce and use the most coal in the U.S.
- Electricity prices in the South continue to be lower than the nation's average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Electric Power Monthly, making the case for solar particularly tough in a high-interest rate environment.
- Low overall energy prices are only part of the picture, many utilities in the South also have the most anemic solar export policies in the U.S., only offering an avoided cost power export credit of ~$.02/kWh (which is <20% of power consumption cost).
Overall, 2023 highlighted the challenges the solar industry must overcome in the year ahead, specifically around high interest rates. Bright spots remain with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and as our homeowner survey reveals: Consumer interest in solar is higher than ever.
Our next dataset digs down into the minds of U.S. homeowners and their impressions about solar.