Key Takeaways
Where does the solar story go from here? In the long run, there’s no question: Solar is undeniable. New regulations will be met with innovation. New fees will be met with new technology.
In fact, we already have concrete examples of this happening. After the net billing tariff (aka NEM 3.0) took effect in California, the solar market declined. But what did the solar industry do? Looked for innovative ways to provide value to homeowners. Now, the storage for self-consumption model and technologies like virtual power plants (VPPs) are already helping to drive demand back up. For example, according to EnergySage, in California there’s been a nearly 45% increase in storage attachment since NEM 3.0 went into effect in April, 2023 — 80% of EnergySage shoppers in California are now requesting storage quotes.
And let’s not forget consumers’ role in this. It's clear that there's interest in solar and related technologies, where consumers need some assistance is practical guidance on the financials to get them over the hump.
Sure, it may take a little while to reach new highs again. According to Wood Mackenzie data, the last time residential solar installs declined from the previous year was 2017. Installs grew again in 2018, and took until just 2019 for the market to recover to 2016 levels.
So, yes, 2024 could be one of the down years on the solar coaster. But if history is any indication, professionals should be ready for growth. Or, put more accurately, ready to drive growth.
As interest rates come down and inflation continues to ease, it’s easy to make the case that the second half of 2024 could be a good one. Add in the fact that media and homeowners are starting to see through the utility narrative — as record profits are followed by even more price hikes — and we may be reaching another inflection point. This is especially true considering positive legislation in Utah and the ongoing effort to roll back NEM 3.0 in California.
When it’s all taken together, the implication is clear, and the data in this report echoes it: Customers, professionals, and increasingly legislators, aren’t going to sit by — they’re going to fight back.
This, plus the data and trends we’ve discussed in this report, leaves only one logical conclusion: Despite any temporary dips we experience in the trajectory of that growth, solar will continue to grow.
To achieve this growth, solar professionals will have to find new ways for solar to fulfill its potential. If we’ve learned anything from working with installers for more than 10 years, they will.